The Yarra Australian Equities Fund offers investors exposure to a differentiated, high conviction portfolio of ASX listed companies that we believe have strong capital-growth potential over the medium to long-term.
Key Contributors
CSL (CSL, underweight) – our underweight to the globally focused biotechnology company contributed positively to performance during the quarter, as the stock continued to weaken following the pre-release in June of FY24 group earnings guidance which was below market expectations (around 10% lower than consensus for group FY24 NPATA). The weaker operating outlook was driven by lower growth in the core blood plasma business, Behring, as cost pressures pushed out the margin recovery story. We retain our cautious outlook for Behring, driven by increased competition, elevated and prolonged cost pressures, adverse relative product growth rates and longer-term product substitution risk. Trading on 25.9-times forward FY24 P/E, we currently retain an underweight position.
Carsales.com (CAR, overweight) — the online auto classifieds company outperformed during the period following its full-year result. The result proved up CAR’s investment case of the recent acquisitions of Trader Interactive in the US business and Webmotors in Brazil, with both businesses demonstrating double digit yield growth as dynamic pricing models were introduced. Combined with a strengthened market position in Australian private car sales, there is now much greater visibility around continued price and yield increases across the business.
Key Detractors
ResMed (RMD, overweight) – our overweight position in the medical equipment manufacturer detracted during the month following the release of its full-year results. We would characterise the share price weakness as driven by firstly an increased focus on the potential future impact of weight loss drugs GLP-1s on the sleep-apnoea market and, secondly, an eventual return of competitor Phillips into the sleep-apnoea device market in the USA. There was also a degree of gross margin disappointment following delivery of the company’s full year result. Notwithstanding the above factors, we continue to see a solid market penetration outlook for RMD’s CPAP devices, and hence believe these are factored into expectations at current levels with the stock trading on an attractive valuation (21.7 times P/E FY24 vs 28.1 times longterm average).
Iluka Resources (ILU, overweight) – our overweight position in the mineral sands company was a detractor during the quarter. Iluka reported a 10% decline in mineral sands revenue and a 22% decline in underlying EBITDA in its FY23 results, with the market concerned over the short-term outlook for mineral sands demand notwithstanding ILU’s commentary of flat pricing in the second half. We continue to like mineral sands markets long-term and favour ILU ‘s leverage as the world’s largest Zircon producer and fifth largest producer of titanium feedstocks. Iluka is moving into Rare Earths production through the Eneabba refinery and should be a critical component producer for the EV industry.
What is Yarra Australian Equities Fund Yarra Australian Equities Fund is an Managed Funds investment product that is benchmarked against ASX Index 200 Index and sits inside the Domestic Equity - Large Cap Neutral Index. Think of a benchmark as a standard where investment performance can be measured. Typically, market indices like the ASX200 and market-segment stock indexes are used for this purpose. The Yarra Australian Equities Fund has Assets Under Management of 122.83 M with a management fee of 0.9%, a performance fee of 0.00% and a buy/sell spread fee of 0.3%.
How has the investment product performed recently? The recent investment performance of the investment product shows that the Yarra Australian Equities Fund has returned 6.72% in the last month. The previous three years have returned 9.98% annualised and 14.03% each year since inception, which is when the Yarra Australian Equities Fund first started.
How is risk measured in this investment product? There are many ways that the risk of an investment product can be measured, and each measurement provides a different insight into the risk present. They can be used on their own or together to perform a risk assessment before investing, but when comparing investments, it is common to compare like for like risk measurements to determine which investment holds the most risk. Since Yarra Australian Equities Fund first started, the Sharpe ratio is 0.39 with an annualised volatility of 14.03%. The maximum drawdown of the investment product in the last 12 months is -9.81% and -37.34% since inception. The maximum drawdown is defined as the high-to-low decline of an investment during a particular time period.
What is the relative performance of the investment product? Relative performance is what an asset achieves over a period of time compared to similar investments or its peers. Relative return is a measure of the asset's performance compared to the return to the other investment. The Yarra Australian Equities Fund has a 12-month excess return when compared to the Domestic Equity - Large Cap Neutral Index of -2.53% and -0.38% since inception.
Does the investment product produce Alpha over its Peers? Alpha is an investing term used to measure an investment's outperformance relative to a market benchmark or peer investment. Alpha describes the excess return generated when compared to peer investment. Yarra Australian Equities Fund has produced Alpha over the Domestic Equity - Large Cap Neutral Index of -0.21% in the last 12 months and -0.05% since inception.
What are similar investment products? For a full list of investment products in the Domestic Equity - Large Cap Neutral Index category, you can click here for the Peer Investment Report.
What level of diversification will Yarra Australian Equities Fund provide? Yarra Australian Equities Fund has a correlation coefficient of 0.97 and a beta of 1.01 when compared to the Domestic Equity - Large Cap Neutral Index. Correlation measures how similarly two investments move in relation to one another. This establishes a 'correlation coefficient', which has a value between -1.0 and +1.0. A 100% correlation between two investments means that the correlation coefficient is +1. Beta in investments measures how much the price moves relative to the broader market over a period of time. If the investment moves more than the broader market, it has a beta above 1.0. If it moves less than the broader market, then the beta is less than 1.0. Investments with a high beta tend to carry more risk but have the potential to deliver higher returns.
How do I compare the investment product with its peers? For a full quantitative report on Yarra Australian Equities Fund and its peer investments, you can click here for the Peer Investment Report.
How do I compare the Yarra Australian Equities Fund with the ASX Index 200 Index? For a full quantitative report on Yarra Australian Equities Fund compared to the ASX Index 200 Index, you can click here.
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Performance Commentary - August 31, 2023 Key Contributors
Carsales.com (CAR, overweight) – the online auto classifieds company outperformed during the month following its full-year results. The results proved up CAR’s investment case of the recent acquisitions of Trader Interactive in the US business and Webmotors in Brazil with both businesses demonstrating double digit yield growth as dynamic pricing models were introduced. Combined with a strengthened market position in Australian private car sales, there is now much greater visibility around continued price and yield increases across the business.
NEXTDC (NXT, overweight) – Data centre operator NEXTDC continued to perform strongly during the month after announcing another large step-up in contracted capacity. NXT has signed 25MW of capacity mainly in its M2 (Melbourne) data centre. This brings NXT to a 60MW (70%) increase in contracted capacity in the last three months, highlighting a step change in demand for data centre capacity and the company’s market leading capability.
Key Detractors
Resmed (RMD, overweight) – our overweight position in the medical equipment manufacturer detracted during the month following its full-year results. A number of characteristics drove this share price weakness including in particular an increased focus on the potential future impact of weight loss drugs GLP-1s on the sleep-apnoea market; the return of competitor Phillips into the sleep-apnoea device market in the USA; and, to a lesser extent a degree of gross margin disappointment following delivery of the company’s full year result. Notwithstanding the above factors, we continue to see a solid market penetration outlook for RMD’s CPAP devices, and hence believe these are factored into expectations at current levels with the stock trading on an attractive valuation (21.6x P/E NTM vs 28.1x long-term average).
Alumina (AWC, overweight) – our overweight position in the alumina producer was a detractor during the month following its half-year results. We are concerned that environmental approvals to mine, close to the Serpentine dam may not be received in a timely manner, and the company has less than 12 months of remaining low-grade ore to mine at Huntly. We see a material risk that the Kwinana and Wagerup refineries may be forced to curtail production or even close at a time where the company’s debt levels are approaching unsustainable levels. This has led us to exit the position.
Key Purchases
APA Group (APA) – we initiated a position in the gas transmission pipeline company via participation in an equity raising used to fund Alinta’s Pilbara assets. The acquisition of the Alinta assets gives APA an attractive platform to deploy capital into the decarbonisation of mining operations in the Pilbara through the development of renewable generation and transmission infrastructure. APA trades on a valuation of 11.5x FY24 EV/EBITDA and a 6.5% dividend yield, which we view as an attractive entry point.
Performance Commentary - July 31, 2023 Key Contributors
CSL (CSL, underweight) – our underweight to the globally focused biotechnology company contributed positively to performance in July as the stock continued to weaken following the pre-release in June of FY24 group earnings guidance which was below market expectations (around 10% lower than consensus for group FY24 NPATA). The weaker operating outlook was driven by lower growth in its core blood plasma business, Behring, as cost pressures delay the margin recovery story. We retain our cautious outlook for Behring, driven by increased competition, elevated and prolonged cost pressures, adverse relative product growth rates and longerterm product substitution risk. Trading on 28.0 times forward P/E, we retain an underweight position.
United Malt (UMG, overweight) – the global commercial malt processor and distributor outperformed as Malteries Soufflet signed a binding deal to acquire UMG at $5.00 a share (a +45% premium to the undisturbed price) following an extensive period of due diligence.
Key Detractors
Iluka (ILU, overweight) – our overweight position in the mineral sands company was a detractor during the month. Despite the company’s solid June quarterly production report, ILU expects demand to be softer during 2H23. Competitor Tronox also highlighted this trend which led to market concerns. While we see short-term demand risks, traditional supply sources – particularly in South Africa – appear to be in decline, supporting ILU’s expectations for flat pricing in the second half. We continue to favour the mineral sands markets for long-term investment, and specifically ILU as the world’s largest Zircon producer and fifth largest producer of titanium feedstocks. Iluka is moving into Rare Earths production through its Eneabba refinery, adding potential for the company to become a critical component producer for the EV industry.
National Australia Bank (NAB, underweight) – the bank sector performed well during the month as the market began to place a higher probability on a soft landing and interest rates remaining higher for longer. We remain underweight, with Australia’s banks facing material earnings pressures through declining net interest margins, elevated expense growth and a normalisation in bad debt expenses, meaning sector EPS is likely to be at peak levels.
Performance Commentary - June 30, 2023 Key Contributors
Xero (XRO, overweight) – the online accounting software provider outperformed during the quarter after announcing a solid result, with subscribers and revenue in line with expectations and EBITDA ahead of estimates. The result saw XRO’s new CEO provide more detail about the company’s shift towards more disciplined growth, with an increased focus on yield as a growth lever along with subscriber growth.
Insurance Australia Group (IAG, overweight) – our position in Australia’s largest personal lines insurer added value over the period following a positive investor day update, which demonstrated more conservative setting around reinsurance and perils allowances, de-risking the growth outlook.
Key Detractors
Link Group (LNK, overweight) – the diversified superannuation administration provider underperformed over the period following an adverse update in late June specific to its Retirement & Superannuation Solutions (RSS) business which confirmed that a superannuation customer representing approximately 4% of the business’ revenue would not be renewing their contract in FY25. Notwithstanding LNK calling out that FY23 was overall tracking ahead of expectations, the share price weakened as investors queried if LNK may need to trade off margin for renewal certainty in future years.
United Malt (UMG, overweight) – the global commercial malt processor and distributor underperformed during the period. UMG received a takeover bid from peer Malteries Soufflet priced at $5.00/share (+45% premium to prior closing price) in late March but has retraced modestly from its highs as a degree of deal risk began to be priced. Our view has been that Malteries Soufflet has required time to undertake sufficient due diligence and that the likelihood of a deal proceeding remains high. Positively, following end of the June period on 3 July, UMG received confirmation of the bid proceeding at $5.00 subject to a number of deal requirements. This saw the stock up +8.6% on the first trading day in July.
Performance Commentary - May 31, 2023 Key Contributors
Xero (XRO, overweight) – the online accounting software provider outperformed during the month after announcing a solid result, with subscribers and revenue in line with expectations and EBITDA ahead of estimates. The result saw XRO’s new CEO provide more detail about the company’s shift towards more disciplined growth with an increased focus on yield as a growth lever along with subscriber growth.
Key Detractors
CSL (CSL, underweight) – our underweight to the globally focused biotechnology company detracted from performance in May, which coincided with the release of results from blood plasma peers Grifols and Takeda. These updates provided some supportive data points for the outlook for its blood plasma business, Behring (approximately 65% of CSL group earnings), in particular the return of donors to collection centres and moderating donor fees from peak levels. Nevertheless, there remain a number of more challenged aspects to the outlook for blood plasma economics, including elevated non-donor fee cost inflation, increased competition, adverse relative product growth rates and longer-term product substitution risk. Trading on 30.2-times forward P/E, we retain an underweight position.
Performance Commentary - April 30, 2023 Key Contributors
Reliance Worldwide (RWC, overweight) – the manufacturer and distributor of plumbing and heating parts outperformed following the release of its March-quarter trading update. The trading update was broadly positive, demonstrating the resilience of its repair-focussed end markets (total sales growth of +14.2% for the nine months ending March-23) and a robust margin outlook supported by cost-out plans and easing raw material cost pressure. We view RWC as a compelling opportunity, with the market pricing for a significant decline in earnings (P/E of only 14.9 times vs 17.0 times mid cycle) whereas we remain constructive on the demand environment given the defensive nature of RWC’s revenue base, the majority of which relates to repair and remodelling sales.
Key Detractors
United Malt (UMG, overweight) – the global commercial malt processor and distributor underperformed during the period. UMG received a takeover bid from peer Malteries Soufflet priced at $5.00/share (+45% premium to prior closing price) in the prior month and retraced modestly from its highs close to the deal terms. Malteries Soufflet is currently undertaking due diligence and we believe that the likelihood of a deal proceeding is high.
Performance Commentary - March 31, 2023 Key Contributors
United Malt (UMG, overweight) – the global commercial malt processor and distributor outperformed during the period after receiving a takeover bid from peer Malteries Soufflet priced at $5.00/share (+45% premium to prior closing price). It emerged that Malteries Soufflet has submitted four bids for UMG since December 2022, indicating strong interest in UMG’s assets. We believe that the likelihood of a deal proceeding is high.
Reliance Worldwide (RWC, overweight) – the manufacturer and distributor of plumbing and heating parts outperformed early in the quarter as the 30-year US mortgage rates compressed ~30bps and the market’s belief that the Fed was getting closer to the top of this rate hiking cycle strengthened. RWC also outperformed after its March Investor Day at which it announced two new products which should drive EBIT upgrades in later years (FY25+). We view RWC as a compelling opportunity, with the market pricing for a significant decline in earnings (P/E of only 14.5 times vs 17.0 times mid cycle) whereas we remain constructive on the demand environment given the defensive nature of RWC’s revenue base, the majority of which relates to repair and remodelling sales.
Key Detractors
Incitec Pivot (IPL, overweight) – the manufacturer and distributor of fertilisers and explosives products underperformed over the period, as the price for Tampa ammonia fell 55% over the last three months on weaker gas prices in Europe and weaker demand. After IPL announced the sale agreement for its WALA asset (20 March 2023), the group is now much less exposed to movements in ammonia pricing going forward. IPL achieved a better-than-expected sale price for WALA of U$1.68bn and announced a value accretive offtake agreement with CF Industries. We expect that IPL will be able to commence its previously announced buyback of A$400m after its 1H23 result and may upgrade the buyback program with the A$1.25bn of net cash proceeds from the WALA sale.
Performance Commentary - February 28, 2023 Key Contributors
QBE Insurance (QBE, overweight) – the general insurer performed strongly during the month, reporting a solid full year result which was largely in line with expectations, with guidance for gross written premium growth for 2023 of mid to high single digits leading to upgraded earnings expectations. QBE has made material progress in de-risking its portfolio which, combined with the strong revenue environment and the benefit to earnings from higher interest rates, have led to strong earnings and return outlook.
Link Administration (LNK, overweight) – the outsourced services provider appreciated during the month as the company made material progress in resolving the uncertainty overhanging it UK Fund Solutions business. LNK announced that it had an in-principal agreement with potential acquirer Waystone to purchase its Fund Solutions business, with the UK regulator (FCA) agreeing that the proceeds from the sale would be sufficient to cover its restitution claims for unitholders in the collapsed Woodford funds.
Key Detractors
Northern Star (NST, overweight) – the gold producer was a negative contributor during the month. Following a period of strong outperformance late in 2022, NST tracked the gold price lower in February, with gold declining 5% to US$1,817/oz at month end. We continue to favour NST’s solid assets and strong cost control. Aspirations to grow the business from current production of ~1.5Moz p.a. to >2Moz p.a. by 2026 remain achievable within the current portfolio, led by the Thunderbox mill expansion project and improving grades at its Super Pit and Pogo (Alaska) assets. The company remains the quality name in the gold sector, in our view.
PEXA (PXA, overweight) – the electronic conveyancing company underperformed during the period, despite reporting a solid result for the six months to December 2022. With the background of the anticipated slowdown in house transaction volumes in Australia already an overhang on the stock, PXA guided to a slower roll out of its UK platform and higher than anticipated losses in its startup digital business.
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