Tribeca Alpha Plus Class A (ETL0069AU) Report & Performance

The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index delivered a 2.9% gain in July, understating a +5.8% bounce off intra-month lows. Key offshore benchmarks posted similar gains for the month, including the S&P 500 (+3.1%) and MSCI World (+3.3%). Bond yields were relatively subdued, consolidating the sharp move higher over the past 2 months.

Sector performance highlights a pro-cyclical tilt to markets during the month as cyclicals generally outperformed defensives. Energy (+8.8%) and Financials (+ 4.9%) were the best performing sectors, while Healthcare

(-1.5%) and Consumer Staples (-1.1%) lagged. The rally in Energy stocks was driven by higher oil prices, with WTI crude up nearly 16%. Thermal coal (+7%) also had a strong month. Financials were driven higher by the banks, as benign inflation data lead to reduced rate hike expectations and hence lowered the risk of policy being overtightened.

Healthcare was the worst performing sector for a second consecutive month and is now the worst performing sector over 12 months. This weakness has been driven by materially negative earnings revisions from the likes of CSL, Healius and Ramsay, however, we see selective opportunities arising in the space.

All attention is now focussed on the upcoming FY23 reporting season. Bottom-up consensus expectations are for a 1% contraction in EPS for the financial year. Forecasts have EPS making a low in the current half, with a 5% contraction for the 12-months to December 2023. These bottom-up projections point to a modest downturn in corporate profits to be followed by a moderate recovery in 2024. Our expectations for earnings season is that we should see an easing of supply chain concerns relative to the past few years, which should allow for a release of working capital thus improving balance sheet strength. On the flip side, wage inflation looks like it will increasingly be a headwind for corporate profits in FY24 outlook statements.

The Fund returned +1.75% in July, underperforming the benchmark by 1.13%. Overweight positions that contributed positively included: Woodside (WDS), on the back of rising oil prices; Kogan (KGN), which reported 4Q23 earnings that surprised to the upside thanks to a material improvement in gross margins despite softer sales numbers; and, Smartgroup (SIQ) which rallied after a trading update from Fleet Partners (FPR) highlighted very strong growth in demand for novated leases on Electric Vehicles thanks to a regulatory change in late 2022.

Underweight stocks that contributed positively included: Ansell (ANN), which fell sharply after providing maiden guidance for FY24, which included a stagnant top-line and increased costs and thus was well below market consensus; and Woolworths (WOW) which drifted lower during the month as investors shunned expensive defensive stocks in favour of more cyclical exposure.

Key detractors included overweight positions in: Northern Star (NST), which provided disappointing production guidance for FY24 due to planned mill-shutdowns in the September quarter; and Star Entertainment Group (SGR) which sold off on limited news as investors continue to focus on regulatory pressure and ultimately balance sheet strength. The key underweight position which negatively impacted performance was Megaport (MP1), which provided a quarterly report highlighting cost-out that has improved profitability and materially reduced balance sheet concerns.

The S&P/ASX200 Accumulation Index gained 1.01% in the June quarter, lagging global benchmarks such as the MSCI World (+6.3%) and the S&P500 (+8.3%). Globally, growth and tech were particularly strong for a second consecutive quarter, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a 15.2% return for the quarter.

Yield curves continue to move around significantly as investors scour economic data and central bank communications for clues as to where cash rates will peak in this cycle. During the June quarter, the Australian 2 Year Bond yield added 126 basis points to close at 4.21%, the highest print since mid-2011. Meanwhile the 10-Year added 73 basis points to 4.02%, a 10 year high. Economic data continues to be more resilient than consensus expectations, particularly in respect to employment data, whilst inflation has moderated (particularly in the US) which has provided support to the soft-landing narrative. Towards the end of the quarter a slew of downgrades in the consumer space provides some evidence that the consumer is starting to feel the impact of higher cash rates.

The best performing sector by far was Information technology (+21.1%) following strong offshore leads. Xero (+33.0%) rallied sharply as the new CEO delivered a strong FY23 result which pointed to a more balanced approach in the trade-off between top-line growth and profitability.

Other strong performers in the sector during the quarter were Megaport (+75%) and Life360 (+54%) which are also accelerating their own paths to profitability with cost out programs following several years of significant headcount expansion. Utilities (+5.5%) was the secondbest performing sector after AGL (+34%) surged on the back of a profit upgrade driven by rising wholesale power prices. Other sectors to see reasonable outperformance were Industrials (+3.8%) and Energy (+3.8%).

The worst performing sectors were Healthcare (-3.2%) and Materials (-2.5%). Healthcare was dragged lower by negative trading updates from sector heavy weights: Ramsay Healthcare (-15.4%); Fisher & Paykel (-9.3%); and CSL (-3.8%). All 3 stocks saw earnings estimates revised lower as margins were squeezed by inflationary pressure in the cost base. Materials were softer on the back of broad-based commodity price weakness. Iron Ore (-10.6%), Copper (-7.5%) and Coking Coal (-38%) all registered material declines despite a relatively flat USD for the quarter.

Against this backdrop, the Fund posted a return of %0.10 for the quarter, underperforming its benchmark by -0.91 %.

At the stock level, notable contributors included overweight positions in:
-Xero (XRO) which reported better than expected FY23 earnings on the back of strong cost discipline from the new CEO. -NextDC (NXT) which rallied on the announcement of a major new longterm contract in its recently constructed S3 Data Centre; and -Pilbara Minerals (PLS), which benefitted from a rebound in Lithium Carbonate prices coupled with a strong growth in production volumes.

Underweights which helped performance included:
-South32 (S32) which issued a weak production update early in the quarter, leading to lower volume guidance across a number of operations; and -Seek Ltd (SEK) which is under pressure due to very soft trends in the Job Ad index.

Detracting from performance were overweight positions in:
-a2 Milk Company (A2M) which provided a subdued update for sales of its infant formula in the Daigou channel early in the quarter and did not recover despite receiving a key Chinese regulatory approval for its Chinese-label infant milk formula late in the quarter; and -Treasury Wine (TWE) which issued a trading update which pointed to a challenged outlook for lower-value commercial wines.

Whilst on the underweight side, negative attribution came from:
-Megaport (MP1) which rallied sharply as management implemented a cost-out program to accelerate its path to cashflow breakeven, plus. -Downer EDI (DOW) which reported multiple material contract wins late in the quarter.

Australian equities fell in May with a -2.53% drop in the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index. Macro influences remained elevated with a surprise 25bps rate hike from the RBA early in the month, followed by a higherthan-expected inflation print dragging the market lower. Offshore leads were mixed with the S&P 500 (+0.25%) closing marginally positive, while the MSCI World fell -1.25%. Meanwhile the growth and tech heavy Nasdaq lead the way with a +7.61% rise.

Sector dispersion was significant across the month with 4 sectors posting gains and 7 posting negative returns. Technology (+11.6%) significantly outperformed on the back of strong results from Xero (XRO +17.8%) and Technology One (TNE +8.5%), along with Life360 (360 +34.1%) at the smaller end. Offshore leads, from the US in particular, were also very constructive for tech as investors weighed some positive developments in the AI space. Other sectors to post positive returns were Utilities (+1.1%), Energy (+0.2%) and Healthcare (+0.1%).

Discretionary retail (-6.2%) was the laggard on signs of a weaker consumer. Sector heavyweight Wesfarmers (WES -8.3%) called out consumer pressure at their investor day, while there were multiple profit downgrades from small-cap retailers. The recent announcement from the Fair Work Commission of a ~6% pay increase to minimum wage and the award wage floor is also bearish for earnings in the retail sector. Index heavyweight sectors Financials (-4.8%) and Materials (-4.5%) also dragged the index lower. Banks fell on the back of soft updates from Commonwealth Bank and Westpac Bank, while Resource names struggled in the face of waning economic momentum from China.

Consensus earnings expectations for the S&P/ASX200 Accumulation Index were revised down by a further -1.3% during the month, taking 3-month revisions to -3.6%. Modest downgrades were seen amongst the banks and the retail sector. At month end the S&P/ASX200 Accumulation Index was trading at 14.6x forward earnings compared to the long-term average of 14.7x.

Australian equities moved gently higher in April with the ASX 200 gaining +1.85%. Sentiment improved as the RBA paused its rate hiking cycle and benign economic data continued to provide support to a soft-landing narrative, largely due to the lack of any real negative surprises. Similarly, the absence of any new major developments in the US banking crisis helped improve sentiment, although it should be noted US regional bank share prices noticeably under-performed larger banks with the ongoing deposit and liquidity drain weighing. Major offshore indices were broadly consistent, with the S&P 500 (+1.5%) and the MSCI World (+1.6%) marginally underperforming the local bourse. All sectors bar Materials (-2.6%) posted positive returns for the month. Interest rate sensitive sectors lead the way, with Real Estate (+5.1%) edging out Information Technology (+4.8%) for the best return. Banks contributed to market momentum as investors gained confidence around a potential bottoming for residential property prices. A rise in Sydney house prices and improved auction clearance rates helped presage a turn in confidence. Note, both Real Estate and Banks continue to lag on a rolling 3-month basis.

M&A remains a focus, as announced deals with any Australian involvement are off to the strongest start to a year since 2007. According to data from Refinitiv (through to April 14), there has been US$46.1bn of Australian M&A announced year-to-date, up from US$43.2bn this time last year. A bid for Blackmores from Kirin at the end of the month added to this total. Meanwhile, earnings revisions for the ASX200 continue to be negative. During April, 12- month forward estimates were revised lower by – 1.5%, with Energy (-10.6%) downgraded the most. 3-month revisions are now -3.1% at the index level and remain negative across most sectors. Energy has seen the largest revisions (-21.3%) with Utilities (-5.5%) and Technology (-5.4%) being the other main culprits.

February saw a partial reversal of January’s very strong returns with the ASX200 falling 2.4%. There were a lot of factors impacting the market at both a macroeconomic and stock specific level as reporting season played out. Early in the month, the RBA raised policy rates for the 9th consecutive time by 25bps to bring the cash rate to 3.35% and this was followed immediately followed up by a repricing of the implied terminal rate to above 4%. The US market also saw a hawkish shift, where expectations for the Fed Funds Rate were pushed to nearly 6%, driving a sell-off in the bond market and pushing yields back towards their late 2022 highs.

A reversal in soft landing fears saw a sizable rally in the US$ which then put pressure on commodity prices and our own mining and gold stocks which both led the market lower with falls of 7.5% and 9.1% respectively. Complicating the rates backdrop was a very volatile reporting season which for the most part was better than expected, but only because expectations had collapsed due to fears that the economic slowdown was well underway and concerns that profit margins were also being squeezed by rising costs. As it turned out, sales lines were broadly better than expected as demand remain solid and inflation boosted nominal prices, but margins squeeze was clearly evident due to numerous headwinds including rising raw materials, higher utility costs and rising labour costs. It is always hard to generalise the reporting season, but defensive stocks (staples, insurance) were the most consistent achievers followed by domestic cyclicals simply due to beaten up expectations. Growth stocks and Resources were both relatively disappointing and there was a clear reversal trend in COVID winners such as Energy and Consumer Services.

Over the month there was a long list of stocks that were sold off heavily following disappointing results and/or announcements (DMP, DOW, SGR, JBH, HVN, AMP, QAN) with a large collection of both large and small cap resource stocks also in the firing line (NST, PLS, MIN, BHP, RIO, SLR, LKE). The bank sector fell 5.1% with CBA (-6.4%) and WBC (-5.9%) leading the declines as it became clear that rising competition was threatening margins across the sector. On the positive side, Insurance rose 6.5% driving by a 15% rise in MPL post a strong result guidance with IAG also rising 7.3%, QBE up 8.8% and SDF rising 9.5%. Other standouts included ORG, ORA, WTC ALD and ORI. While price performance was slightly better than expected across the reporting season, earnings revisions were down across the board with negative revisions at their worst level since the GFC (excluding the pandemic period).

From a sector perspective, Utilities (+2.3%) lead the way, driven by the revised bid for Origin Energy. Information Technology (+2.2%) was also strong on the back of solid updates from Link Group and Computershare which both have exposure to rising interest rates.

Other sectors which outperformed included Industrials (+1.4%) and Consumer Staples (+0.9%). As detailed above, the weakest sector was Materials (-6.9%) as underlying commodity prices fell in response to a US dollar rally (DXY +2.8%). Brent Oil fell by US$2 to US$82.45/bbl, Iron Ore prices fell US$3 to US$126/Mt while the broad-based London Metals Index fell 7.5%. Financials (-3.8%) also dragged the index lower after Commonwealth Bank warned that the bank sector had seen peak Net Interest Margins (NIMs) back in October.

The Fund returned -2.52% in February. Overweight positions that contributed positively included: Medibank Private (MPL), which posted a solid beat to 1H earnings expectations on the back of improved PHI margins and Underweight stocks that contributed positively included: Harvey Norman (HVN), which reported a soft start to sales in the new calendar year with its 1H result; and, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) which said NIMs peaked in October and foresees a tougher environment competitively for the banking sector this year.

Key detractors included overweight positions in: Dominos Pizza (DMP) which missed 1H earnings expectations and issued a soft sales update for the star of 2H, and Northern Star (NST) which fell along with its gold sector peers in reaction to a softer underlying gold price. The key underweight position which negatively impacted performance was QBE Insurance Group (QBE) which rallied on a solid beat to CY22 earnings on the back of strong growth in GWP which drove operating leverage from the expense base.

Global equity markets rallied sharply in January, reversing December’s softness. The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index rallied 6.2%, which was inline with the move seen in the S&P 500 (+6.2%) and slightly behind the 7.0% return from the MSCI World Index. Index moves were largely macro driven as some investors saw an increased potential for a soft landing in the US as inflation slows but employment data remains decisively strong.

Successive lower inflation prints have seen the FOMC slow the tempo of rate hikes, with a 25-basis point increase in January, after 50 basis points in December and 4 consecutive 75 basis point hikes prior to that. Powell also indicated that they see only “a couple more hikes” looking forward which saw yield curves drop in both the US and Australia.

All sectors posted positive returns in January, except for Utilities (-3.0%), which lagged on concerns about government intervention and falling power prices. Consumer discretionary (+10.1%) was the best performer as positive pre-announcements from cyclical retailers like JB Hi-Fi (+15%) and Super Retail (+18%) suggests that headwinds from RBA rate hikes and falling home prices are yet to flow through. Materials (+8.9%) outperformed on China re-opening and falling USD, despite a more mixed performance from underlying commodity prices during the month. The Real Estate sector (+8.1%) also bounced strongly on a more dovish rate outlook following significant underperformance in CY22.

In February, all eyes will be on Consensus earnings revisions (12-month forward) for the ASX200 were marginally positive (+0.5%) over the month. This was driven entirely by materials (+3.6%) with all other sectors neutral or negative. At the end of the month the ASX200 was trading at 13.9x forward earnings, below the longer-term average of 14.6x.

The Fund returned 4.85% in January, underperforming its benchmark by 1.38%. Performance attribution was relatively evenly balanced between the long and short sides of the book. Overweight positions that contributed positively included: Goodman Group (GMG), which outperformed a strong REIT sector bounce as investors priced a slightly more dovish rate environment; IDP Education (IEL), which has seen an improving outlook for student placements and benefited from the accelerated Chinese re-opening; and, Pro Medicus (PME) which hit an all-time closing high after announcing a new contract win on the last day of the month.

Underweight stocks that contributed positively included: Amcor (AMC), which has seen downward revisions to EPS estimates on concerns around currency headwinds and cost growth; and, New Hope Corporation (NHC) which saw profit taking due to a 32% drop in the thermal coal price during the month.

Key detractors included overweight positions in: Tabcorp (TAH) which gave up recent out-performance on concerns around the level of promotional activity being undertaken by competitors in the gaming segment, and a2 Milk (A2M) which traded sideways following a strong run-up in its share price in recent months. The key underweight position which negatively impacted performance was Breville Group (BRG) which is a quality discretionary retail name that benefited from the perception of an economic soft landing.