Prime Value Growth B (PVA0011AU) Report & Performance

What is the Prime Value Growth B fund?

Prime Value Growth B aims to provide superior medium to long term capital growth with some income by managing a portfolio of predominantly Australian equities listed on the Australian Stock Exchange Limited (ASX). Strategy: PVGF will be comprised of securities, primarily Australian listed equities. The fund may from time to time invest in Cash and Fixed Interest investments when appropriate. Benchmark: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index.

Growth of $1000 Investment Over Time

Performance Report

Peer Comparison Report

Peer Comparison Report

Latest News & Updates For Prime Value Growth B

Prime Value Growth B Fund Commentary August 31, 2023

The fund returned -0.9% in August, 0.2% below the ASX 300 Accumulation Index return of -0.7%. August was reporting season when most companies report their financial results for the period to June 30. Broadly speaking, shares prices follow earnings so it is a critical time to assess how a company is performing and how it is likely to perform in future. We meet with over 100 companies during this period.

It is clear the economy is softening, which is to be expected after multiple rate rises that started in May 2022. As you would expect. the more cyclical sectors are experiencing the toughest conditions, namely media (advertising), retail and residential housing. Advertising softened from late 2022 while retail took another c. 3-6 months to be impacted (depending on the category).

Residential housing impacts were staggered with house prices softening first in mid 2022, which flowed through to weak listing volumes (houses for sale), followed by weakening household goods demand and more recently softer construction activity. Interestingly these are starting to improve in the same order with house prices starting to rise moderately c. 6 months ago, which has flowed through to higher listing volumes recently. Should this be sustained, it’s likely household goods purchases and construction activity will also improve.

Cost pressures were a feature in reported results but are easing. It’s easier to find employees and staff turnover is reducing. Shipping rates are typically at or below pre-covid levels after increasing c. 500% previously. Many are reporting manufacturing costs out of China have reduced. These easing pressures are being reflected in softening inflation data globally and locally which is a positive sign in that it reduces upward pressure on interest rates.

The rearview is interesting insofar as it helps assess implications for future performance. Kelsian reported a result below expectations due to challenges sourcing labour, however we view this as a short-term issue and increased our holding after the stock fell. Sourcing drivers of their buses is becoming easier and should result in an earnings uplift in 2024. The business is relatively defensive, its US acquisition was surprisingly strong and valuation is compelling in our view.

We are finding some very attractive investment opportunities in the current market. Businesses with defensive and growing earnings streams are trading at attractive valuation multiples.

READ HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE COMMENTARIES

Product Snapshot

  • Product Overview
  • Performance Review
  • Peer Comparison
  • Product Details

Product Overview

Fund Name APIR Code
? A Product Code is unique a identifier code issued by a group or governing body, to reference products in a large group. For an example, APIR codes are commonly used for Funds and Ticker codes are commonly used for Securities such as ETFs and Stocks.
Structure
?
Asset Class
? An Asset Class breakdown provides the percentages of core asset classes found within a mutual fund, exchange-traded fund, or another portfolio. Asset classes (in microeconomics and beyond) generally refer to broad categories such as equities, fixed income, and commodities.
Asset Category
? An Asset Category is a grouping of investments that exhibit similar characteristics and are subject to the same laws and regulations. Asset categories (or a sub-asset class) are made up of instruments which often behave similarly to one another in the marketplace, looking down to the Asset Category level is important if looking to build a diversified portfolio.
Peer Benchmark Name
? A Peer Index (benchmark) refers to a peer group of investment managers who have the same investment style or category. It is used to compare the performance of one manager to their peer group, which makes it simpler for investors to choose between the vast number of investment managers.
Broad Market Index
? A Market Index (benchmark) refers to a hypothetical portfolio of investments that represents a segment, asset or category of an investable market. Market Indices are used to benchmark managers performance, to assist their style reliability and ability to provide excess returns.
FUM
? Funds/Assets under management (AUM) is the total market value of the investments that a person or entity manages on behalf of clients. Assets under management definitions and formulas vary by company.
Management Fee
? A management fee is a charge levied by an investment manager for managing an investment fund. The management fee is intended to compensate the managers for their time and expertise for selecting finanical products and managing the portfolio.
Performance Fee
? A performance fee is a payment made to an investment manager for generating positive returns. This is as opposed to a management fee, which is charged without regard to returns. A performance fee can be calculated many ways. Most common is as a percentage of investment profits, often both realized and unrealized. It is largely a feature of the hedge fund industry, where performance fees have made many hedge fund managers among the wealthiest people in the world.
Spread
? A spread can have several meanings in finance. Basically, however, they all refer to the difference between two prices, rates or yields. In one of the most common definitions, the spread is the gap between the bid and the ask prices of a security or asset, like a stock, bond or commodity. This is known as a bid-ask spread.
Prime Value Growth BPVA0011AUManaged FundsDomestic EquityAustralia Large GrowthDomestic Equity - Large Growth IndexASX Index 200 Index174.70 M1.03%00.76%

Performance Review

Fund Name Last Month
? Returns after fees in the most recent (last) month).
3 Months Return
? Returns after fees in the most recent 3 months.
1 Year Return
? Trailing 12 month returns.
3 Years Average Return
? Average Annual returns from the last 3 years.
Since Inc. Average Return
? Average (annualised) returns since inception
1 Year Std. Dev. (Annual)
? The standard deviation (or annual volatility) of the last 12 months.
3 Years Std. Dev. (Annual)
? The average standard deviation (or annual volatility) from the last 3 years.
Since Inc. Std. Dev. (Annual)
? The average standard deviation (or annual volatility) since the fund inception.
1 Year Max Drawdown
? The maximum drawdown in the last 12 months - a drawdown is a peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment, trading account, or fund.
3 Year Max Drawdown
? The maximum drawdown in the last 36 months - a drawdown is a peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment, trading account, or fund.
Since Inc. Max Drawdown
? The maximum drawdown since inception - a drawdown is a peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment, trading account, or fund.
Prime Value Growth B1.15%-0.12%10.8%3.87%10.44%11.37%13.57%21.95%-8.15%-17.84%-40.65%

Peer Comparison

Fund Name Peer Index Name
? A group of individuals who share similar characteristics and interests are called peer groups. Peer group analysis is an essential part of assessing a price for a particular stock in investment research. The emphasis here is on making a comparison, meaning that the peer group constituents should be more or less identical to the company being examined, especially in terms of their main business and market capitalization areas.
12 Months Excess Return
? Excess returns are an important metric that helps an investor to gauge performance in comparison to other investment alternatives. In general, all investors hope for positive excess return because it provides an investor with more money than they could have achieved by investing elsewhere.
Excess Return Annualised Since Inception
? Excess returns are an important metric that helps an investor to gauge performance in comparison to other investment alternatives. In general, all investors hope for positive excess return because it provides an investor with more money than they could have achieved by investing elsewhere.
12 Months Alpha
? Alpha is used in finance as a measure of performance, indicating when a strategy, trader, or portfolio manager has managed to beat the market return over 12 months. Alpha, often considered the active return on an investment, gauges the performance of an investment against a market index or benchmark that is considered to represent the market’s movement as a whole.
Alpha Annualised Since Inception
? Alpha is used in finance as a measure of performance, indicating when a strategy, trader, or portfolio manager has managed to beat the market annualized since inception. Alpha, often considered the active return on an investment, gauges the performance of an investment against a market index or benchmark that is considered to represent the market’s movement as a whole.
12 Months Beta
? Rolling 12Month Beta is a measure of the volatility—or systematic risk—of a security or portfolio compared to the market as a whole. Beta is used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for assets (usually stocks).
Beta Annualised Since Inception
? Beta is a measure of the volatility—or systematic risk—of a security or portfolio compared to the market as a whole. Beta is used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for assets (usually stocks).
12 Months Tracking Error
? 12Month Tracking error is the difference in actual performance between a position (usually an entire portfolio) and its corresponding benchmark over the last 12 months. The tracking error can be viewed as an indicator of how actively a fund is managed and its corresponding risk level. Evaluating a past tracking error of a portfolio manager may provide insight into the level of benchmark risk control the manager may demonstrate in the future.
Tracking Error Since Inception
? Since Inception tracking error is the difference in actual performance between a position (usually an entire portfolio) and its corresponding benchmark since inception. The tracking error can be viewed as an indicator of how actively a fund is managed and its corresponding risk level. Evaluating a past tracking error of a portfolio manager may provide insight into the level of benchmark risk control the manager may demonstrate in the future.
12 Months Correlation
? Correlation, in the finance and investment industries, is a statistic that measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other. Correlations are used in advanced portfolio management, computed as the correlation coefficient, which has a value that must fall between -1.0 and +1.0.
Correlation Since Inception
? Correlation, in the finance and investment industries, is a statistic that measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other. Correlations are used in advanced portfolio management, computed as the correlation coefficient, which has a value that must fall between -1.0 and +1.0.
Prime Value Growth BDomestic Equity - Large Growth Index-2.33%1.35%NA%NA%NA%0.93.61%16.94%0.960.64

Product Details

Fund Name Verifed by SMSF Mates Manager Address Phone Website Email
Prime Value Growth BYes-https://primevalue.com.au/-

Product Due Diligence

What is Prime Value Growth B

Prime Value Growth B is an Managed Funds investment product that is benchmarked against ASX Index 200 Index and sits inside the Domestic Equity - Large Growth Index. Think of a benchmark as a standard where investment performance can be measured. Typically, market indices like the ASX200 and market-segment stock indexes are used for this purpose. The Prime Value Growth B has Assets Under Management of 174.70 M with a management fee of 1.03%, a performance fee of 0 and a buy/sell spread fee of 0.76%.

How has the investment product performed recently?

The recent investment performance of the investment product shows that the Prime Value Growth B has returned 1.15% in the last month. The previous three years have returned 3.87% annualised and 21.95% each year since inception, which is when the Prime Value Growth B first started.

How is risk measured in this investment product?

There are many ways that the risk of an investment product can be measured, and each measurement provides a different insight into the risk present. They can be used on their own or together to perform a risk assessment before investing, but when comparing investments, it is common to compare like for like risk measurements to determine which investment holds the most risk. Since Prime Value Growth B first started, the Sharpe ratio is NA with an annualised volatility of 21.95%. The maximum drawdown of the investment product in the last 12 months is -8.15% and -40.65% since inception. The maximum drawdown is defined as the high-to-low decline of an investment during a particular time period.

What is the relative performance of the investment product?

Relative performance is what an asset achieves over a period of time compared to similar investments or its peers. Relative return is a measure of the asset's performance compared to the return to the other investment. The Prime Value Growth B has a 12-month excess return when compared to the Domestic Equity - Large Growth Index of -2.33% and 1.35% since inception.

Does the investment product produce Alpha over its Peers?

Alpha is an investing term used to measure an investment's outperformance relative to a market benchmark or peer investment. Alpha describes the excess return generated when compared to peer investment. Prime Value Growth B has produced Alpha over the Domestic Equity - Large Growth Index of NA% in the last 12 months and NA% since inception.

What are similar investment products?

For a full list of investment products in the Domestic Equity - Large Growth Index category, you can click here for the Peer Investment Report.

What level of diversification will Prime Value Growth B provide?

Prime Value Growth B has a correlation coefficient of 0.64 and a beta of 0.9 when compared to the Domestic Equity - Large Growth Index. Correlation measures how similarly two investments move in relation to one another. This establishes a 'correlation coefficient', which has a value between -1.0 and +1.0. A 100% correlation between two investments means that the correlation coefficient is +1. Beta in investments measures how much the price moves relative to the broader market over a period of time. If the investment moves more than the broader market, it has a beta above 1.0. If it moves less than the broader market, then the beta is less than 1.0. Investments with a high beta tend to carry more risk but have the potential to deliver higher returns.

How do I compare the investment product with its peers?

For a full quantitative report on Prime Value Growth B and its peer investments, you can click here for the Peer Investment Report.

How do I compare the Prime Value Growth B with the ASX Index 200 Index?

For a full quantitative report on Prime Value Growth B compared to the ASX Index 200 Index, you can click here.

Can I sort and compare the Prime Value Growth B to do my own analysis?

To sort and compare the Prime Value Growth B financial metrics, please refer to the table above.

Has the Prime Value Growth B been independently verified by SMSF Mate?

This investment product is in the process of being independently verified by SMSF Mate. Once we have verified the investment product, you will be able to find more information here.

How can I invest in Prime Value Growth B?

If you or your self managed super fund would like to invest in the Prime Value Growth B please contact via phone or via email .

How do I get in contact with the Prime Value Growth B?

If you would like to get in contact with the Prime Value Growth B manager, please call .

Comments from SMSF Mates

SMSF Mate does not receive commissions or kickbacks from the Prime Value Growth B. All data and commentary for this fund is provided free of charge for our readers general information.

Historical Performance Commentary

Performance Commentary - July 31, 2023

The fund returned +2.8% in July, in line with the ASX 300 Accumulation Index return of +2.9%. Key fund contributors over the month were Lindsay Australia (LAU +18.4%), Commonwealth Bank (CBA +5.4%) and SG Fleet (SGF +13.9%). Key detractors were Austal (ASB -7.2%), CSL (CSL -3.2%) and Kelsian (KLS -4.5%). July continued the strong recovery in the ASX 300 Accumulation Index which is actually +8% from the beginning of the interest rate tightening cycle in March 2022. As we mentioned last month, very few investors expected such strong market returns highlighting that short term returns are hard to predict and long-term investing is best. We highlight this via a couple of twenty-year charts, the first of which shows the monthly returns of the ASX 300 Accumulation Index since July 2003, which appears relatively volatile and lacking direction.

Performance Commentary - June 30, 2023

The fund returned +2.4% in June, 0.7% above the ASX300 Accumulation Index return of +1.7%. June concluded the financial year and returns were strong with the fund +14.0%. Very few expected such strong market returns highlighting that short term returns are hard to predict and long-term investing is best. There are good years and bad years but over the long term, returns are very strong.

By being invested, unit holders have benefitted from a +14.0% year when many other asset values declined. Over the last 2 years the fund has marginally underperformed the ASX300 Accumulation index (+0.4% v’s +3.3% p.a.). This is because the fund is overweight small industrials which have underperformed large capitalisation stocks which dominate the ASX300 index. The small industrials accumulation index return over the last 2 years has been -8.8% p.a., creating a significant headwind to performance. When markets rebound, smaller companies typically rebound more meaning this headwind will turn into a tailwind. We saw this over the last 6 months with the fund outperforming the ASX300 by 3.3% (+7.7% v’s +4.4%).

Small industrials is an appealing market segment as it is a deep pool of opportunity. There is a large variety of companies in very different niche industries and most have limited research coverage. We meet 4 companies per day on average ensuring we find the best ideas and have them in the fund. Markets are currently trending positively and it appears we are nearing the end of the RBA’s rate hiking cycle so there are reasons to be positive on the market outlook. However, as always, it is very difficult to forecast markets in the short term. Over the long term we are confident markets will be significantly higher so the fund’s returns should be strong. Over the last 2 years of market turbulence, many quality businesses have fallen significantly, presenting the opportunity to buy at discounted prices. Earlier this year we started buying Domain Group (DHG) after its share price had halved in the previous 12 months. DHG is a high-quality business being the second largest online property portal in Australia.

The industry is concentrated with 2 main players, high barriers to entry and strong pricing power. Since our purchase the stock is up c. 20% in anticipation of an improving residential property cycle (increased listings). This highlights the market is forward looking and you can’t wait for ideal conditions to invest. In our view, investing in equities is not a speculative game. It provides the opportunity to be the part-owner of very high-quality businesses at attractive prices (when timed right). A cursory glance at the wealthiest people in Australia and globally illustrates that being a business owner is a fantastic way to generate wealth. Market falls over the last 2 years is presenting investment opportunities that should provide strong investment returns in the years to come.

Performance Commentary - May 31, 2023

The fund returned -0.2% in May, which was 2.3% ahead of the ASX 300 Accumulation Index which returned -2.5%. The month was characterised by strong returns from Technology and Lithium stocks, and weak performances from the broader Resources and Retail sectors. Local Technology stocks appeared to rally following a material profit upgrade from US-listed Artificial Intelligence beneficiary, NVIDIA. Conversely, softer Chinese economic data saw Resource stocks sold off, while Retail stocks were hit by signs that consumer demand is softening.

Key fund contributors in May were Kelsian (KLS +11.5%), Newscorp (NWS +11.3%) and Austal (ASB +19.0%). Key detractors were BHP Group (BHP -5.4%), AUB Group (AUB -8.0%) and Helloworld (HLO -10.6%). Kelsian (KLS) rose on limited new news, and has steadily become one of the fund’s largest holdings. For us, it is a reminder of the importance of investing in quality businesses at the right price. For a long time, we have been attracted to Kelsian’s resilient public bus business model, that sees it generate inflation-protected cash flows with no fare box risk from longterm contracts with government counterparties, and without material capital investment in key infrastructure in some regions. However, we were not alone in appreciating these qualities, with investors pushing the stock beyond our valuation tolerance levels to >$9ps for much of 2021 following a series of contract wins and renewals. But no-one has a perfect win rate, and shortly thereafter, the company’s extraordinary winning streak came to an end as it missed out on several tender opportunities. This saw investors lose faith and push the stock down into our hitting zone, resulting in our initial purchase in Jan 2022 at c. $6.50ps.

Further ‘disappointments’ from the failed attempt to acquire a large UK bus operator saw the stock fall lower, providing the opportunity to add 25% to the fund’s holding below $6ps in Sept 2022, and a further 25% addition below $5ps in Oct 2022. Through this time that the stock halved in price, nothing had changed with regards to its business model or operating performance; investors had simply fallen out of love. And just as a perfect hit rate is unobtainable, a perfect loss rate is sustained by few, and Kelsian has since enjoyed more than its market share worth of new wins through the NSW Government’s recent tender process, resulting in a ~50% share price rise since (to $6.80ps).

Our most recent opportunity to add to the position came in Mar 2023, participating in an equity raise (at $5.55ps) as the company acquired a large US bus business with an experienced management team and impressive organic growth profile. The key in this case study is the importance of the entry price of an investment; it is a key component of the returns ultimately generated. It will surprise many to learn that the share price of the median company in the ASX300 index is trading 17% below its 52-week high, while also trading 27% above its 52-week low – that is, the median ASX300 company has traded in a >40% share price range over the past year.

Performance Commentary - April 30, 2023

The fund returned +2.6% in April, 0.7% above the ASX 300 Accumulation Index of +1.9%.

The fund is overweight smaller companies in a focused, lower risk way i.e. growing, high quality, less cyclical businesses. Since the beginning of 2022 smaller companies have underperformed larger companies by circa 20% and this has been a major headwind to performance. In recent months this has started to reverse. When combined with the fund’s outperformance relative to the small company index (Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index), fund performance has been improving. To some extent, future performance will also be driven by the dynamic of small v’s large. However small companies are trading at an abnormally large valuation discount to large companies and that will unwind at some point. This implies there is more upside to small companies long-term. The timing is uncertain, but it can happen quickly.

April’s solid returns were driven by our exposure to smaller companies. All 3 of our best performers were small while our largest detractor was a large cap (BHP).

Lindsay Australia (LAU.ASX, +38%) is a relatively small position in the fund but materially benefitted performance after upgrading guidance for earnings in the current financial year. EBITDA is now expected to be 50% above last year and it appears this may be conservative. The recent liquidation of Lindsay’s largest competitor (Scott’s) has removed capacity from the industry coming into the seasonally strongest period which provides strong pricing power to incumbent operators. In many cases, contracts are being locked-in for 3-5 years at significantly higher prices thereby ensuring long term benefits for the company. Despite the stock price tripling from our original purchase last year, it remains attractively priced on an FY24 PE of c. 10x, yielding 5% fully franked.

Helloworld (HLO.ASX, +36%) is a tourism operator exposed to international travel. In April HLO also upgraded earnings guidance for the current financial year. Guidance still appears conservative given the implied earnings for the fourth quarter is similar to the seasonally weaker third quarter. It is reasonable to expect the fourth quarter to be materially higher. Momentum remains strong for tourism operators globally due to pent-up demand after 3 long years of covid restrictions and health concerns.

AUB Group (AUB.ASX, +8%) is an insurance broker that made a UK acquisition in 2022. Initial concerns with the risk of a large offshore acquisition are dissipating and the insurance premium cycle is still positive, further supporting earnings growth.

Performance Commentary - February 28, 2023

February was a weak month for equities, as company results illustrated declining earnings momentum. The MSCI Developed Markets Index fell (-1.5%), and the S&P500 Index also lost momentum (-2.4%) in local currency terms. Emerging markets underperformed Developed Markets, falling (-4.3%) across the month.

The RBA began the month with a more hawkish tone outlining their intention to take interest rates further. Australian 10-year bonds fell in reaction to tightening monetary policy, with yields rising 30bps to 3.86%. US 10-year bonds also fell with yields rising 39bps to 3.92%, in reaction to stronger than expected economic data.

The fund’s return was -1.3% in February, 1.3% better than the ASX 300 Accumulation Index of -2.6%.

We continue to hold a portfolio of stocks which individually are high quality, all are profitable and most we consider structurally growing with less dependence on the economic cycle. The equity we own in this group of companies should grow in value over coming years and provide a reasonable dividend stream along the way. Less certain is market sentiment and how this value is reflected in stock prices in the short term. We hold stocks for an average of 4 years which reflects our belief in the power of compounding wealth through the patient ownership of quality assets that grow in value over time.

Performance Commentary - January 31, 2023

The fund’s return was +4.7% in January, 1.6% below than the Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index of +6.3%.

The strong market performance was led by stocks in the Retail and Mining sectors. Retailers benefited from still strong consumer spending (refer to strong updates from the likes of Super Retail and Accent Group), while Miners benefited from strong commodity prices (and is a sector in which the fund tends to be underweight due to a low predictability of earnings).

The fund currently has a limited exposure to Retailers given the exhaustion of ‘excess’ savings that resulted from COVID stimulus payments and the pending fixed rate mortgage cliff. This sector of the economy has experienced conditions that are about as good as it gets, both in terms of sales and margins, which we expect to revert over the medium-term. In particular, the household savings rate has returned to a more normal level of ~7%, having increased to as high as 24% in June 2020 as land-locked households were restricted from spending on services that were in lockdown, instead deflecting this spend into buying more goods than ever. Additionally, a temporary low cost funding facility provided to the banks through COVID saw them offer very low fixed rate mortgages that will largely expire over 2023. This will result in ~10% of Australians move from fixed rates of ~2%pa into higher variable interest rates of ~6%, which will likely further impact consumer spending levels.

Key fund contributors in January were BHP Group (BHP +8.2%), CBA (CBA +7.3%) and Macquarie (MQG +12.2%). Key detractors were Austal (ASB – 20.2%), Regis Healthcare (REG -7.2%) and Lindsay (LAU -7.2%). BHP was strong on higher commodity prices which were buoyed by China’s re-opening, with Iron Ore and Copper both +10% in January.

CBA rose on no news flow, as the major banks continuing to gain market share against non-bank lenders due to a cost of funding advantage.

Macquarie (MQG) also rose on limited news flow, with some expectations that its 3Q trading update could highlight benefits from the dislocation in natural gas markets.

Austal (ASB) downgraded its FY23 earnings guidance by ~40% as it raised a provision for an onerous contract with the US Navy. The company has submitted a claim for reimbursement of higher quantities of steel and cost inflation in relation to the T-ATS contract, which may or not succeed. Either way, the outcome should not, in theory, impact future earnings.

Regis Healthcare (REG) was weak following the release of the Department of Health’s Aged Care Star Ratings which ranked REG in the bottom quartile of the larger peer group.

Performance Commentary - December 31, 2022

The fund’s return was -2.3% in November, 1.0% better than the ASX300 Accumulation Index of -3.3%.

Key positive contributors in December were Lindsay (LAU +19.5%), NIB Health (NHF +6.2%) and Hotel Property Investments (HPI +6.3%). Key detractors were Commonwealth Bank (CBA -4.9%), Omni Bridgeway (OBL -15.8%) and Austal (ASB -14.8%).

It was good to see the end of a tough year for equities in 2022. Rising inflation resulted in higher interest rates that impacted valuations, particularly for small cap companies (-18% in 2022) in which the fund has exposure. Equities generate strong long term returns however volatility is part of the trade-off. There are good years and bad years. Thankfully the good years far outnumber the bad years.

Historically small cap stocks rebound strongly after years like 2022 which was the 3rd worst in the last 20 years (chart below). But forecasting the timing is very uncertain. Global macro factors are a key driver which are notoriously difficult to forecast. Our best estimate is “sometime in 2023”.

Historically when equities rebound, smaller companies rebound the most. We expect it will be similar this time with the steeper falls experienced by smaller companies in 2022 during the downturn reversed in the upturn.

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