Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W (ADV0067AU) Report & Performance

What is the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W fund?

Advance International Fixed Interest Multi-blend Wholesale aims provide a source of income from international fixed interest exposure with a total investment return (before fees and taxes) that outperforms the benchmark over periods of three years or longer. The Fund invests in a wide range of fixed interest securities and investments, such as government, corporate and typically other international fixed interest securities.

Growth of $1000 Investment Over Time

Performance Report

Peer Comparison Report

Peer Comparison Report

Latest News & Updates For Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W

Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W Fund Commentary August 31, 2023

Global bond markets were marginally lower over August with both the Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index (Hedged) and FTSE World Government Bond (ex-Australia) Index (Hedged) returning -0.3%. Apart from Germany, where yields dropped (-2bps to 2.44%), ten-year bond yields moved higher across major jurisdictions including the US (16bps to 4.10%), UK (6bps to 4.37%) and Japan (6bps to 0.64%). Twoyear bond yields were similar, decreasing in Germany (-6bps to 3.04%), while increasing in the UK (17bps to 5.16%), US (1bp to 4.98%) and Japan (3bps to 0.03%).

Returns for most Australian bondholders were positive over August. In a bull steepening move, 10-year bond yields decreased slightly (-3bps to 4.02%), alongside five-year bond yields (-6bps to 3.77%) and two-year bond yields (-24bps to 3.81%).

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Product Snapshot

  • Product Overview
  • Performance Review
  • Peer Comparison
  • Product Details

Product Overview

Fund Name APIR Code
? A Product Code is unique a identifier code issued by a group or governing body, to reference products in a large group. For an example, APIR codes are commonly used for Funds and Ticker codes are commonly used for Securities such as ETFs and Stocks.
Structure
?
Asset Class
? An Asset Class breakdown provides the percentages of core asset classes found within a mutual fund, exchange-traded fund, or another portfolio. Asset classes (in microeconomics and beyond) generally refer to broad categories such as equities, fixed income, and commodities.
Asset Category
? An Asset Category is a grouping of investments that exhibit similar characteristics and are subject to the same laws and regulations. Asset categories (or a sub-asset class) are made up of instruments which often behave similarly to one another in the marketplace, looking down to the Asset Category level is important if looking to build a diversified portfolio.
Peer Benchmark Name
? A Peer Index (benchmark) refers to a peer group of investment managers who have the same investment style or category. It is used to compare the performance of one manager to their peer group, which makes it simpler for investors to choose between the vast number of investment managers.
Broad Market Index
? A Market Index (benchmark) refers to a hypothetical portfolio of investments that represents a segment, asset or category of an investable market. Market Indices are used to benchmark managers performance, to assist their style reliability and ability to provide excess returns.
FUM
? Funds/Assets under management (AUM) is the total market value of the investments that a person or entity manages on behalf of clients. Assets under management definitions and formulas vary by company.
Management Fee
? A management fee is a charge levied by an investment manager for managing an investment fund. The management fee is intended to compensate the managers for their time and expertise for selecting finanical products and managing the portfolio.
Performance Fee
? A performance fee is a payment made to an investment manager for generating positive returns. This is as opposed to a management fee, which is charged without regard to returns. A performance fee can be calculated many ways. Most common is as a percentage of investment profits, often both realized and unrealized. It is largely a feature of the hedge fund industry, where performance fees have made many hedge fund managers among the wealthiest people in the world.
Spread
? A spread can have several meanings in finance. Basically, however, they all refer to the difference between two prices, rates or yields. In one of the most common definitions, the spread is the gap between the bid and the ask prices of a security or asset, like a stock, bond or commodity. This is known as a bid-ask spread.
Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend WADV0067AUManaged FundsFixed IncomeBonds - GlobalFixed Income - Bonds - Global IndexGlobal Aggregate Hdg Index73.07 M0.65%0.00%0.31%

Performance Review

Fund Name Last Month
? Returns after fees in the most recent (last) month).
3 Months Return
? Returns after fees in the most recent 3 months.
1 Year Return
? Trailing 12 month returns.
3 Years Average Return
? Average Annual returns from the last 3 years.
Since Inc. Average Return
? Average (annualised) returns since inception
1 Year Std. Dev. (Annual)
? The standard deviation (or annual volatility) of the last 12 months.
3 Years Std. Dev. (Annual)
? The average standard deviation (or annual volatility) from the last 3 years.
Since Inc. Std. Dev. (Annual)
? The average standard deviation (or annual volatility) since the fund inception.
1 Year Max Drawdown
? The maximum drawdown in the last 12 months - a drawdown is a peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment, trading account, or fund.
3 Year Max Drawdown
? The maximum drawdown in the last 36 months - a drawdown is a peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment, trading account, or fund.
Since Inc. Max Drawdown
? The maximum drawdown since inception - a drawdown is a peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment, trading account, or fund.
Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W1.04%3.76%9.44%-1.4%5.41%5.6%6.08%3.77%-2.16%-13.3%-14.66%

Peer Comparison

Fund Name Peer Index Name
? A group of individuals who share similar characteristics and interests are called peer groups. Peer group analysis is an essential part of assessing a price for a particular stock in investment research. The emphasis here is on making a comparison, meaning that the peer group constituents should be more or less identical to the company being examined, especially in terms of their main business and market capitalization areas.
12 Months Excess Return
? Excess returns are an important metric that helps an investor to gauge performance in comparison to other investment alternatives. In general, all investors hope for positive excess return because it provides an investor with more money than they could have achieved by investing elsewhere.
Excess Return Annualised Since Inception
? Excess returns are an important metric that helps an investor to gauge performance in comparison to other investment alternatives. In general, all investors hope for positive excess return because it provides an investor with more money than they could have achieved by investing elsewhere.
12 Months Alpha
? Alpha is used in finance as a measure of performance, indicating when a strategy, trader, or portfolio manager has managed to beat the market return over 12 months. Alpha, often considered the active return on an investment, gauges the performance of an investment against a market index or benchmark that is considered to represent the market’s movement as a whole.
Alpha Annualised Since Inception
? Alpha is used in finance as a measure of performance, indicating when a strategy, trader, or portfolio manager has managed to beat the market annualized since inception. Alpha, often considered the active return on an investment, gauges the performance of an investment against a market index or benchmark that is considered to represent the market’s movement as a whole.
12 Months Beta
? Rolling 12Month Beta is a measure of the volatility—or systematic risk—of a security or portfolio compared to the market as a whole. Beta is used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for assets (usually stocks).
Beta Annualised Since Inception
? Beta is a measure of the volatility—or systematic risk—of a security or portfolio compared to the market as a whole. Beta is used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for assets (usually stocks).
12 Months Tracking Error
? 12Month Tracking error is the difference in actual performance between a position (usually an entire portfolio) and its corresponding benchmark over the last 12 months. The tracking error can be viewed as an indicator of how actively a fund is managed and its corresponding risk level. Evaluating a past tracking error of a portfolio manager may provide insight into the level of benchmark risk control the manager may demonstrate in the future.
Tracking Error Since Inception
? Since Inception tracking error is the difference in actual performance between a position (usually an entire portfolio) and its corresponding benchmark since inception. The tracking error can be viewed as an indicator of how actively a fund is managed and its corresponding risk level. Evaluating a past tracking error of a portfolio manager may provide insight into the level of benchmark risk control the manager may demonstrate in the future.
12 Months Correlation
? Correlation, in the finance and investment industries, is a statistic that measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other. Correlations are used in advanced portfolio management, computed as the correlation coefficient, which has a value that must fall between -1.0 and +1.0.
Correlation Since Inception
? Correlation, in the finance and investment industries, is a statistic that measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other. Correlations are used in advanced portfolio management, computed as the correlation coefficient, which has a value that must fall between -1.0 and +1.0.
Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend WFixed Income - Bonds - Global Index0.96%0.51%NA%NA%NA%1.170.96%1.55%10.91

Product Details

Fund Name Verifed by SMSF Mates Manager Address Phone Website Email
Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend WYes275 Kent Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia61-2-9259-3555https://www.bt.com.au/-

Product Due Diligence

What is Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W

Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W is an Managed Funds investment product that is benchmarked against Global Aggregate Hdg Index and sits inside the Fixed Income - Bonds - Global Index. Think of a benchmark as a standard where investment performance can be measured. Typically, market indices like the ASX200 and market-segment stock indexes are used for this purpose. The Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W has Assets Under Management of 73.07 M with a management fee of 0.65%, a performance fee of 0.00% and a buy/sell spread fee of 0.31%.

How has the investment product performed recently?

The recent investment performance of the investment product shows that the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W has returned 1.04% in the last month. The previous three years have returned -1.4% annualised and 3.77% each year since inception, which is when the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W first started.

How is risk measured in this investment product?

There are many ways that the risk of an investment product can be measured, and each measurement provides a different insight into the risk present. They can be used on their own or together to perform a risk assessment before investing, but when comparing investments, it is common to compare like for like risk measurements to determine which investment holds the most risk. Since Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W first started, the Sharpe ratio is NA with an annualised volatility of 3.77%. The maximum drawdown of the investment product in the last 12 months is -2.16% and -14.66% since inception. The maximum drawdown is defined as the high-to-low decline of an investment during a particular time period.

What is the relative performance of the investment product?

Relative performance is what an asset achieves over a period of time compared to similar investments or its peers. Relative return is a measure of the asset's performance compared to the return to the other investment. The Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W has a 12-month excess return when compared to the Fixed Income - Bonds - Global Index of 0.96% and 0.51% since inception.

Does the investment product produce Alpha over its Peers?

Alpha is an investing term used to measure an investment's outperformance relative to a market benchmark or peer investment. Alpha describes the excess return generated when compared to peer investment. Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W has produced Alpha over the Fixed Income - Bonds - Global Index of NA% in the last 12 months and NA% since inception.

What are similar investment products?

For a full list of investment products in the Fixed Income - Bonds - Global Index category, you can click here for the Peer Investment Report.

What level of diversification will Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W provide?

Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W has a correlation coefficient of 0.91 and a beta of 1.17 when compared to the Fixed Income - Bonds - Global Index. Correlation measures how similarly two investments move in relation to one another. This establishes a 'correlation coefficient', which has a value between -1.0 and +1.0. A 100% correlation between two investments means that the correlation coefficient is +1. Beta in investments measures how much the price moves relative to the broader market over a period of time. If the investment moves more than the broader market, it has a beta above 1.0. If it moves less than the broader market, then the beta is less than 1.0. Investments with a high beta tend to carry more risk but have the potential to deliver higher returns.

How do I compare the investment product with its peers?

For a full quantitative report on Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W and its peer investments, you can click here for the Peer Investment Report.

How do I compare the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W with the Global Aggregate Hdg Index?

For a full quantitative report on Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W compared to the Global Aggregate Hdg Index, you can click here.

Can I sort and compare the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W to do my own analysis?

To sort and compare the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W financial metrics, please refer to the table above.

Has the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W been independently verified by SMSF Mate?

This investment product is in the process of being independently verified by SMSF Mate. Once we have verified the investment product, you will be able to find more information here.

How can I invest in Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W?

If you or your self managed super fund would like to invest in the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W please contact 275 Kent Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia via phone 61-2-9259-3555 or via email -.

How do I get in contact with the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W?

If you would like to get in contact with the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W manager, please call 61-2-9259-3555.

Comments from SMSF Mates

SMSF Mate does not receive commissions or kickbacks from the Advance Int Fix Intr Multi-Blend W. All data and commentary for this fund is provided free of charge for our readers general information.

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Historical Performance Commentary

Performance Commentary - July 31, 2023

In July, global equity markets maintained current upward momentum with most regions delivering solid, positive returns. On the other hand, fixed income performance was mixed, although in this “risk on” phase of the cycle, riskier parts of the sector fared better.

A combination of further declines in headline inflation, resilient economic data, particularly from the US, and market expectations that the current interest rate hiking cycle is nearing an end, led to positive investor sentiment throughout the month.

The advanced Q2 2023 US GDP growth figure was reported late month, coming in at 2.4% and surprising market economist estimates of 1.8%. On the flipside, UK and Eurozone growth was close to flat. Benefitting from the base effects of emerging from its extensive 2022 Covid lockdown, China’s GDP growth rate was measured at an annualised 6.3%, though a little below 7.3% expectations. Forwardlooking composite purchasing manager indices (PMI) kept falling across the globe in July, with Japan the only region holding steady. PMIs for the services sector continue to outpace manufacturing though are easing towards 50, an important level that is considered the line between expansion and contraction.

Inflation data continued to decline, somewhat aided by the impact of last year’s energy price surge rolling off. US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 3.0% p.a and is at the lowest level since early 2021. Similarly, CPI data across the UK, Eurozone and Australia, continues to show easing inflationary conditions, albeit at higher levels than the US. CPI has flatlined at near zero in China. Japan was the only major country that recorded a marginal increase in its inflation rate during Q2 2023. Central banks continued to err on the side of caution, increasing rates by 25bps in the US and Eurozone and 50bps in the UK, where inflation remains the highest among major developed economies.

Central banks continued to emphasise a data-driven approach to future rate adjustments. In the US, which is furthest ahead in the inflation cycle, markets are now pricing in a greater than 50% chance that the Fed’s policy rate has peaked and interest rate cuts maybe forthcoming in 2024.

Over July, Hedged Developed Markets Overseas Shares delivered a 2.8% return. US indices were broadly in line with international developed markets, however, Emerging Markets (unhedged) outperformed with a positive 4.9% return. Value modestly outperformed growth over the period, although when looking on a yearto-date basis, mega-cap tech stocks still dominate returns and has led to increased market concentration within that segment of global markets. In the US, with roughly half of S&P500 companies having reported their Q2 2023 earnings, FactSet currently projects a 7% quarter over quarter (QoQ) earnings decline, which would be the softest quarterly outcome since the height of Covid’s impact. That said, to date the majority of companies have reported better than expected earnings results.

Hedged Overseas Government Bonds returned -0.4% over the month, as bond yields across most regions increased in July. Yields on both key long bonds in the US (10-year and 30-year) rose by approximately 15bps over the month. Outside the US, Japan’s 10-year yield rose by around 19bps, which is noteworthy following the Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will further increase the upper tolerance range for the 10-year yield (now 1.0% vs 0.5% previously). The UK was the only major economy where the 10-year yield fell, albeit modestly.

Australian Shares returned 2.9%, marginally outperforming their overseas counterparts in July. Financials (4.9%) and Energy (8.4%) were the strongest sectors of the market, while Healthcare (-1.5%), and Materials (1.4%) detracted.

Performance Commentary - June 30, 2023

Global bond markets generated a negative return over June with the Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index (Hedged) returning -0.2% and the FTSE World Government Bond (ex-Australia) Index (Hedged) returning -0.3%. Most ten-year bond yields moved higher over the month, increasing in the UK (20bps to 4.38%), the US (16bps to 3.81%), and Germany (14bps to 2.41%), while decreasing in Japan (-3bps to 0.40%). Two-year bond yields mostly moved higher over the month, increasing in the UK (93bps to 5.26%), the US (40bps to 4.94%) and Germany (49bps to 3.19%), while decreasing in Japan (-2bps to -0.08%). Returns for most Australian bondholders were negative over June as 10-year bond yields (42bps to 4.03%), five-year bond yields (58bps to 3.95%) and two-year bond yields (64bps to 4.20%) increased.

Performance Commentary - April 30, 2023

In April, risk asset returns in developed markets were mostly positive, while defensive assets also provided modest gains. Emerging market equities were lower than their developed market counterparts due to the weakness in Chinese stocks.

News flow during April was fairly quiet until the last week of the month when banking concerns resurfaced, as First Republic Bank came under pressure and was ultimately acquired by J.P. Morgan. Equity market volatility ended the month at its lowest level since late-2021, despite a brief spike during the last week of the month. Major economies remained resilient, driven largely by service activity. US GDP for Q1 2023 rose at a 1.1% annualised rate, which was below expectations.

Consumer confidence remained on the rise and labour markets remained tight, in spite of high profile layoffs in the US. Headline inflation continued to decline in major economies, reaching 5.0% in the US, its lowest level since mid-2021. In the UK, inflation fell by less than expected and remained above 10.0%, the highest rate in major developed economies. The People’s Bank of China and Reserve Bank of Australia left key lending rates unchanged. Over April, Hedged Developed Markets Overseas Shares returned 1.6%. Even though the US earnings season delivered a fair number of positive EPS surprises relative to expectations, the earnings decline over the first quarter is set to be the largest since the second quarter of 2020. Returns were positive for most sectors with Consumer Staples delivering the largest gains for the month. Value outperformed growth among large- and mid-cap stocks, while growth outperformed among small-caps. Emerging Market Shares (UH) underperformed unhedged Overseas Shares in April. Weakness in China outweighed the better performance from India and Brazil. Hedged Overseas Government Bonds returned 0.2% over the month as bond yields generally saw modest changes for most countries during the month. In the US, the 10-year bond yield fell by 4bps, while the 30-year yield was flat. In developed markets outside the US, 10-year yields rose by 6bps for Japan and 23bps for the UK. US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year inflation breakeven rate, fell from 2.3% to 2.2%.

Australian Government Bonds were flat over the month. Lending conditions remain somewhat stressed due to banking concerns but bond markets have remained fairly calm. Credit spreads generally declined during the month, with investment-grade spreads falling 2bps and high yield spreads declining 3bps. Australian Shares returned 1.8%, underperforming their overseas counterparts in April. Real Estate (5.2%) and IT (4.5%) were the strongest sectors, meanwhile Materials (-2.6%) and Utilities (1.4%) were the largest detractors.

Global bond markets generated a positive return over April with the Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index (Hedged) returning 0.4% and the FTSE World Government Bond (ex-Australia) Index (Hedged) returning 0.2%. Most ten-year bond yields moved slightly higher over the month, increasing in the UK (23bps to 3.72%), Germany (2bps to 2.32%), and Japan (3bps to 0.36%), while decreasing in the US (-5bps to 3.43%). Most two-year bond yields also rose over the month, increasing in the UK (34bps to 3.78%) and Germany (5bps to 2.79%) while decreasing in the US (- 5bps to 4.09%) and remaining unchanged in Japan at -0.05%. Returns for most Australian bondholders were marginally positive over April despite 10-year bond yields increasing (4bps to 3.34%), five-year bond yields (4bps to 3.07%) and two-year bond yields remaining unchanged at 3.08%.

Performance Commentary - March 31, 2023

The Advance International Fixed Interest Multi Blend Fund underperformed the benchmark by 32bps during the month of March. Relative manager performance was mixed over the month, with Western outperforming the benchmark, whilst Wellington, PIMCO and Standish delivered negative excess returns. Standish delivered negative excess returns relative to the benchmark over the month.

The bulk of the period’s relative underperformance can be attributed to the underweight positions across developed market rates, and credit allocation overweights to Financials, Banks, and REITS as the collapse of two regional banks and as banking sector concerns put upward pressure on financials related spreads. PIMCO underperformed the benchmark with the contributors being the overweight positions to Australian, Korean and Singaporean duration (as yields rallied), while the detractors largely stem from underweight positions across US and European duration added with overweight positons across non-agency mortgages. Wellington underperformed the benchmark over the month as the macro strategies detracted.

Duration, country, currency and yield curve strategies all contributed to the underperformance. Western delivered a positive excess return in March. Duration and yield-curve positioning had a positive impact on the performance as yields fell over the month. An underweight to the US dollar added to the return as well. An overweight to European financials detracted as spreads widened sharply. It was another volatile month for the financial markets in March.

Government bond yields declined significantly over the month, largely due to bank failures in the US and the rescue takeover of Credit Suisse leading to concerns about financial stability. Inflation continued to show signs of moderating in many parts of the world but remains the key concern for most developed market central banks. Economic activity has tended to soften, and major central banks increased interest rates once more, but the rhetoric surrounding those decisions became less hawkish.

Performance Commentary - February 28, 2023

The Advance International Fixed Interest Multi Blend Fund underperformed the benchmark by 7bps during the month of February. Relative manager performance was negative over the month, with Wellington, PIMCO and Standish all outperforming the benchmark, whilst WAM delivered negative excess return. Standish delivered a positive excess return, with most of the alpha attributable to active positioning in developed rates markets. In spread sectors, active intra-sector positioning supported relative returns as overweights in ABS and REITs outperformed. PIMCO delivered performance that was in line with the benchmark.

The fund’s positioning to US and European duration (as yields fell across the curve) added to relative returns, while an overweight towards Australian duration detracted as yields rose. Wellington underperformed the benchmark over the month. While the duration strategy contributed, country, currency and yield curve strategies were detracted. Western underperformed the benchmark over the month. An overweight duration in the US, core European and UK detracted as global government bond yields rose. An overweight to corporate bonds and the currency positioning detracted as well. The fixed income markets traded with mixed results for the month of February as government bond yields generally rose and credit markets struggled to make an impact, with relatively limited moves in credit spreads. Overall, risk markets moved little in February after higher volatility in previous months. Most major central banks raised interest rates early in the month, all of which were expected. Inflations continued to slacken, led by softer energy prices. However, certain upward influences such as higher food prices continue to retain the attention of policymakers who remain concerned for the potential of a renewed uptick in inflation data.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) increased interest rates by 50bp in early February taking the benchmark rate to 3.0%, a 15-year high. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated the hawkish stance of eurozone policymakers by saying a further 50bp increase is planned for the March meeting. Headline inflation fell back in January, though the core measure edged higher. The Bank of England also hiked rates by 50 basis points and accompanied by a dovish statement. In the US, the Federal Reserve increased official rates once more, as was widely expected, but policymakers opted to hike by just 25bp, which might signal a deceleration in monetary tightening.

While recent improvements in inflation may pave the way for a softer approach, meeting minutes showed the Federal Open Market Committee believes risks to inflation remain skewed to the upside and that it would not consider lowering rates “until inflation is clearly on a path to 2%.” Feb members, including Chair Powell, pushed a potential “higher for longer” narrative following strong US economic data.

Performance Commentary - January 31, 2023

The Advance International Fixed Interest Multi Blend Fund outperformed the benchmark by 16bps during the month of January. Relative manager performance was positive over the month, with WAM, PIMCO and Standish all outperforming the benchmark, whilst Wellington delivered negative excess return. Standish outperformed the benchmark marginally, with most of the alpha attributable to active positioning in Emerging Market local rates, US Agency Mortgages and corporate credit markets.

Active positioning in developed market rates and European sovereign debt markets detracted. PIMCO delivered positive excess returns with the contributors being a long exposure to securitized credit and an overweight exposure to financial corporates as spreads tightened. An overweight exposure to inflation linked securities and an overweight exposure to covered bonds detracted as inflation expectations eased. Wellington underperformed the benchmark over the month. While the currency strategy contributed, duration and country strategies were negative detractors. Western outperformed the benchmark over the month. An overweight duration in the US, core European and UK contributed strongly as yields fall.

Overweights in investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds also added to returns. Government bonds strengthened as yields declined in most major markets in January. Most larger central banks did not hold rate-setting meetings during the month, resulting in no changes to interest rate policy. Inflation, which remained the primary concern of most central banks, generally fell back slightly, though markets continued to anticipate more interest rate increases despite the fragile global economic outlook. Warmer weather in Europe, lower natural gas prices, and China’s reopening added to the optimism.

In Europe, headline eurozone inflation fell back more than expected in January, declining to 9.2% from 10.1%, but core inflation continued to increase. There was no rate-setting meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) in January but ECB policymakers continued with hawkish rhetoric, calling for rate increases to be continued and for some time.

Minutes from the December meeting showed some members called for a third successive 75bp increase, but the consensus agreed on 50bp. In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) noted that labour market indicators were loosening, and data indicated sluggish economic activity. In the US, continued hawkish rhetoric emanating from the Federal Reserve (Fed) led the market to anticipate another, albeit smaller, rate hike in early February. Inflation continued to decline and initial data for GDP growth for Q4 2022 was a little better than had been expected at 2.9%, but still weaker than in Q3.

Forward-looking indicators of economic activity seemed to confirm a softer tone, suggesting that the effects of higher interest rates is being reflected in the real economy. In Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting minutes released earlier in the month, the Fed reiterated their resolve to bring down inflation. The Fed commented that the move from 75 to 50 basis points “was not an indication of any weakening of the committee’s resolve to achieve its pricestability goal”.

Fed officials’ median projections for the appropriate path of interest rates also revealed that none of the Fed officials expect that it will be appropriate to cut interest rates in 2023. This is at odds with market pricing. The US 10-year and 2-year yields decreased by 37 bps and 22 bps to 3.51% and 4.2% respectively. Global credit bonds outperformed in January as spreads tightened, with all sectors outpacing treasuries on a duration-equivalent basis.

Corporate credit posted a strong month, led by the high yield cohort with 218 bps of positive excess returns, while investment grade corporates bested duration-matched Treasuries by 120 bps. Securitized sectors were also positive, led by agency MBS given a reduction in rate volatility, followed by CMBS and ABS. The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index returned a positive 2.10% over the month, bringing the one-year performance to -8.94%.

Performance Commentary - December 31, 2022

Relative manager performance was positive over the month, with all four managers, Standish, Wellington, PIMCO and WAM, outperforming the benchmark. Standish outperformed the benchmark, with most of the alpha attributed to active positioning in the developed market rates space. Relative underweights in US, German and Canadian duration all contributed. PIMCO also delivered positive excess returns with the contributors being overweight exposures to financial corporate and long exposures towards securitized credit as spreads tightened. Underweight exposure to non-financial investment grade credit however detracted.

Wellington outperformed the benchmark over the month. While the duration, currency and yield curve strategies contributed, country strategies however detracted. Western slightly outperformed the benchmark over the month. The yield-curve positioning, currency positioning, and an underweight to Japanese duration contributed. However, an overweight to US, UK and core European duration and an overweight to US high-yield corporate bonds detracted. Government bond markets were broadly weaker in December and yields ended the month higher, as a result of hawkish central bank announcements, action by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) towards the end of the month and developments in China’s management of Covid. Chinese officials eased several Covid related restrictions, which is expected to see economic activity improve despite new Covid case numbers rising sharply. This combined with signs that inflationary pressures are easing saw risk sentiment improve. The Bank of Japan broadened the tolerance for its yield curve control target band on the 10yr JGB yield from 25bps to 50bps. This leaves the yield curve control now +/- 50bps around 0%. The BoJ messaged this decision around removing yield curve shape distortions and providing more flexibility around achieving their inflation target of 2%. However, the move surprised the market driving yields higher globally as the expectation is now that the BOJ will need to hike rates to curb their rising inflation.

In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 0.5 percentage points following two previous hikes of 0.75 percentage points, taking the refinancing rate to 2.5% and the deposit facility rate to 2.0%. Previously the ECB had stated that it expected inflation to stay above its mid-term target of 2% for the next three years, while ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasised that rates will rise for some time to come, saying markets could expect “another 50 basis-point rise at our next meeting and possibly at the one after that, and possibly thereafter.” The ECB also said it would begin quantitative tightening beginning in March 2023.

The eurozone experienced its first decline in annual inflation for 2022 in November. In the US, the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightened monetary policy once again in December, taking the Fed Funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had indicated policymakers could moderate the pace of interest rate hikes and the smaller rate hike was widely anticipated. Consumer inflation fell back for the fifth consecutive month, and by more than expected. There was also some modestly positive labour market news as non-farm payrolls data early in the month exceeded market expectations. The Fed lowered its GDP forecast for 2023 and raised its inflation forecast, though the recent fall in inflation has encouraged the hope that the extent and pace of future rate hikes will become more muted. US core CPI fell to its lowest in over a year, and YoY reading for headline CPI came in at +7.1% in November, vs. +7.3% expected. The US 10-year and 2-year yields increased by 27 bps and 12 bps to 3.87% and 4.43% respectively.

Global credit market performance was mixed in December. With rates higher across the yield curve, the broader fixed income market posted negative returns, though credit spreads fell marginally across most sectors. High yield bonds started the month positively on optimism that inflation may be cooling before hawkish Fed rhetoric weighed on the asset class over the latter half of December. Bloomberg US Aggregate Index ended the month down -0.45%. Within the securitized sectors, agency mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities outperformed the duration-equivalent government bonds. The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index returned a negative -1.31% over the month, bringing the one-year performance to -12.28%.

Kind words from Aussies managing
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